Pakistan to seek International Monetary Fund bailout to overcome financial crisis

12 October, 2018, 10:17 | Author: Brooke Harris
  • Finance Minister Asad Umar says decision is taken after consulting leading economists

An IMF report released Wednesday said global growth could be at risk if emerging markets deteriorate further or trade tensions escalate.

"India's growth is expected to increase to 7.3 per cent in 2018 and to 7.4 per cent in 2019 (slightly lower than in the April 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2019, given the recent increase in oil prices and the tightening of global financial conditions), up from 6.7 per cent in 2017", the International Monetary Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

IMF's forecast for Singapore's economic outlook remains steady at 2.9% for 2018, but has been revised downward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.5% for the following year. The May federal budget forecast 3 per cent GDP in 2018-19 and the same the following financial year.

The IMF expects the United States economy to continue growing this year at 2.9%, but sees that rate falling to 2.5% next year amid the country's escalating trade war with China.

Last year, China shipped goods worth $375 billion more to the US than it took in from the United States, a figure Trump has often said he wants to curb sharply in an effort to promote American businesses.

Earlier in the day, Lembong said the US stock-market sell-off was good for emerging economies as it means the USA will be less of a draw for capital and it lessens the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The report also takes stock of global regulatory reform 10 years after the global financial crisis.

The IMF projects average annual inflation will pick up to 2.8 percent in 2018 and to 3.3 percent in 2019, climbing over the National Bank of Hungary's 3.0 percent mid-term target.

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"Asset valuations appear to be relatively high in some markets, notably in the United States", the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday in its latest Global Financial Stability Report. Iran's economy will shrink 1.5 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2019 as oil production and exports plummet.

Market participants "appear complacent" about the potential risks from a "sudden, sharp tightening of conditions" - like rising interest rates or declining access to capital.

The revised estimates includes a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the United States and China in 2019.

Growth of less than five percent would be unprecedented for China since it began its economic reforms in the 1970s, and complicate its efforts to move towards a more balanced economy with a greater role for services.

She thus urged global economies to use the current growth momentum, ("because we still have it") to implement the right policy actions in the areas earlier outlined, so as to be able to achieve the goals set out for global economic prosperity.

While the damage from an all-out trade war wouldn't be catastrophic, slow growth can also pose problems.

Pakistan is also seeking fresh loans from China, which has already heavily invested in transport and energy, as well as Saudi Arabia.

The IMF said higher trade barriers could disrupt global supply chains, slow the spread of technology and ultimately lower global productivity and welfare.

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